Metals have their own fundamentals to consider including the wider geo-political issues and many other con-currents impacting the markets. These include the uncertainty about the Chinese economy, fallout from the Brexit, banks strategies if negative interest rates do not provide the required boost and how markets will react as the new US president takes over. In spite of all these uncertainties metals are choosing to ignore a great deal of it. As metal prices have started to rally, having fallen a long way in recent years, there is still a considerable room for them to recover.
Metal markets in 2017 will see an uptrend as big players like China and India are investing in developing infrastructure that will drive the metal markets up with a balancing supply side as well. Prices for most commodities, including oil, are forecast to rise in 2017 as a long period of declining prices appears to be bottoming out, according to the October Commodities Markets Outlook.
Metals prices are projected to rise more sharply than expected in 2017 due to rapid mine closures ahead of schedule. However, a further growth slowdown in China could weigh on metals prices. Metals fell 9 percent this year but we expect them to show an upward trend in 2017. However, precious metals prices are expected to fall in 2017 as appetite for safe-haven buying ebbs with rising interest rates. Gold is expected to dip to in 2017.
Another key trend is the growth in steel demand. The global steel market is suffering from insufficient investment expenditure and continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. In 2016, while we are forecasting another year of contraction in steel demand in China, slow but steady growth in some other key regions like India, NAFTA and EU is expected.
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